Just a few weeks ago New Zealand’s aviation and tourism sectors were riding high. Summer flights were up 7% on the previous year, and returned to their pre-Covid levels for the first time.
Dec/Jan jet fuel up 7% in a year, up 57% since 2013/14. Source: MBIE Energy Quarterly
All last year there were stories like “Christchurch Airport is entering a period of strong growth, with new and expanded air routes set to deliver a significant boost to Canterbury’s tourism, freight and export sectors” (The Press, June 2025). As late as 3 February this year, the CEO of Tourism Industry Aotearoa was saying “International arrivals are edging upwards, confidence has lifted across the sector, and operators are reporting strong bookings.”
On 3 March, three days after the war began, Tourism Minister Louise Upston said, “The Government welcomes data out today showing New Zealand’s tourism sector continues to go from strength to strength, driving billions into the economy.”
New Zealand wasn’t alone. Willie Walsh, director of the global airline body IATA, said in January, “2025 saw demand for air travel grow by 5.3% with international demand growing by 7.1% and domestic by 2.4%. This returns industry growth to align with historical growth patterns after the robust post-COVID rebound.”
The only dark clouds were the need for decarbonisation (“Governments whose economies grow because of aviation and whose citizens thirst for connectivity need to provide the supportive fiscal policy framework to rapidly accelerate progress”) and supply chain issues (“People clearly wanted to travel more, but airlines were continually disappointed with unreliable delivery schedules for new aircraft and engines, maintenance capacity constraints, and resultant cost increases.”)
IATA forecast essentially permanent growth of 4.2% per year. This far exceeds any ability of the industry to reduce emissions and is a recipe for continually increasing damage.
Source: MBIE Energy Quarterly, Stats NZ
Setting aside decarbonisation – each flight departing New Zealand uses 200 litres of jet fuel per passenger, emitting 500 kg of CO2, a number that has not budged in 20 years – how is that desire to travel more holding up?
Pretty well, it seems. Just yesterday (1 April – but apparently they weren’t joking), RNZ reported:
Despite the conflict and dire news about air travel price surges due to fuel costs, New Zealand consumers are still booking long-haul flights to places like Europe, says Julie White, chief executive of the Travel Agents’ Association of New Zealand.
Swapping the warmth of the northern hemisphere in July for a Queenstown skiing holiday is of little interest to some travel consumers at the moment, White says.
New Zealanders, in general, might have a bit of domestic travel fatigue due to the restrictions during Covid. Many since the Covid years have made travel an essential item in their budget rather than a discretionary one, says White.
“We’re still experiencing strong demand. Kiwis are really wanting to travel, and they are really hoping this is going to be over soon, so they are still booking travel.”
This is delusional and irresponsible. The Ministry of Transport’s own dashboard shows that the price of jet fuel has already more than doubled, which would add at least 30% to future ticket prices even before flight cancellations kick in.
Travelers could very easily find themselves stranded overseas with cancelled flights and no insurance. The BBC and Financial Times are reporting that the UK’s final shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East is arriving this week, with no more booked or on the water. Tourism professor Susanne Becken from Griffiths University wrote
Tourism’s dependence on (affordable and available) jet fuel has long been a known issue; yet the sector choses to ignore this massive challenge. All the discussions around decarbonisation aviation are much more than climate action, they are an insurance for the very future of this industry.
During the Covid pandemic I made the suggestion that countries should look into ‘minimum viable networks’ to find out what level of aviation is considered essential as opposed to discretionary. This would be very sensible risk management, and would – by default – include crises such as global pandemics (i.e. how much lack of connectivity can a country afford), climate change (managing the long-term risk of climate collapse), or fuel constraints.
Although all countries will be affected, New Zealand is more exposed than many, given our remote location, habituated frequent flying, and large tourist industry. (Pacific Islands are even more at risk.) International travel shut down once before, only six years ago. It looks like we are in for a re-run.
A graphic from the previous Assessment, conducted in 2023 under the previous government.
[The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade is undertaking its triennial Strategic Foreign Policy Assessment. The Ministry writes: “The Assessment will examine the international context New Zealand will navigate in the decade to 2036, and what this means for us. The Assessment will consider the most important changes and drivers we see happening in the world, what they mean for New Zealand, what those changes mean for our relationships, and what they mean for our region — the Pacific and the Indo-Pacific.” Heidi O’Callahan’s submission is below. She would love to read other people’s submissions that tackle other (climate-exacerbated) topics, like overfishing, war, peacekeeping, humane treatment of refugees, terrorism, the scam economies and cyber security.
What are the big international issues you think New Zealand will have to navigate over the next 10 years, and what are the opportunities you think New Zealand can pursue?
The big international problems we must navigate are biodiversity loss and climate change, as well as the poverty, inequity, migration, societal breakdown and geopolitical instability exacerbated by these problems. To navigate these issues successfully requires accepting the root cause: an unsustainable economic paradigm of exploitation centred on the pursuit of economic growth.
Above all, our economy needs to operate within planetary limits; it must become more circular, socially-positive, and ecologically regenerative. Our best opportunities for international trade lie in low-carbon, high-value intellectual innovation. The current industries of bulk commodities (timber, milk products, meat, etc) and international tourism must be scaled back significantly. The scale of these industries cannot be justified on a climate basis, and their pollution and transport impacts are directly damaging to New Zealanders’ health, accessibility and freedoms.
What do you consider New Zealand’s foreign policy needs to do to protect and advance our interests in the world over the next 10 years?
Our government needs to act domestically to protect and advance our interests, if our foreign policy is to have a chance of helping us on the international front. We are currently witnessing the opposite; the government is introducing policy and legislation that is directly undermining our safety and wellbeing. This is happening across all spheres: Te Tiriti, transport, agriculture, education, health, climate, housing and social wellbeing are examples. In climate alone, the government has 1) unethically scrapped policies designed to reduce emissions, 2) reduced the climate targets on the basis of no evidence, 3) decided against bringing agriculture into the ETS and 4) indicated they will baulk at paying the bill for international credits to cover emissions that such a climate-ignorant set of actions creates (despite buying credits being the centrepiece of the National Party’s otherwise non-existent climate policy.)
MFAT cannot operate with any integrity on the international stage alongside such appalling government backsliding. So, while New Zealand’s foreign policy needs to support international climate regulations and rules that force wealthier countries like us to reduce emissions rapidly and pay for our past damage, it is hard for MFAT staff to be taken seriously when representing a hypocritical government.
Nor will MFAT succeed at advancing our economic interests or pursuing opportunities; the government’s climate denial will exclude us from markets and keep us out of key international decision-making.
It’s not just in climate we are becoming a laughing stock. The GPS on Transport attracted derision and ridicule from international experts. The UN Committee for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination highlighted how quickly New Zealand is going backwards under this racist government.
New Zealand’s foreign policy should advance real climate justice, climate action, the commitment to international agreements on improving transport safety, reducing racial, gender and age discrimination, the pursuit of improving the wellbeing of people in all countries (especially indigenous people, and the educational and health opportunities for girls and women), the promotion of sustainable practices and ecological regeneration, and above all, the dismantling of the economic paradigm that has led to the destruction of water, soil, air, natural and human resources.
But to pursue advancing these issues, diplomats should be able to draw on robust examples of domestic New Zealand practices, with truth and integrity. Currently, they cannot.
For you, your community, organisation or business: What matters most in the world beyond New Zealand? What places and international relationships matter most? What do you think are New Zealand’s greatest strengths and weaknesses in our international engagement?
We should pursue strong and respectful relationships with our Pacific neighbours. One important matter “in the world beyond New Zealand” is reducing hypermobility. The majority of people in the world have never set foot in an aeroplane. Yet a small minority continue to fly, with enormous climate impact, and we are all subsidising them to do so. Flying is one of the most inequitable and destructive activities humans can indulge in. Our foreign policy should seek international mechanisms and agreements to achieve substantial reductions in aviation. As a country with apparently much to lose (but also much to gain in other ways) from reducing international aviation, New Zealand is actually in a strong position to lead this international work, through demonstration of substantial systemic change. New Zealand needs to shrink our international tourism industry, and take steps to prevent our wealthy people from travelling so much. Our government must stop promoting New Zealand as a destination, stop allowing airport expansions, introduce taxes to prevent recreational and other avoidable flights, and support the transition to sustainable industries, including sustainable bike-, rail-, and coach-based domestic tourism.
The international relationships that matter most are in implementing and honouring the various UN conventions and agreements – on traffic safety, on climate, on wellbeing and health, etc. It seems, currently, that this government is rejecting the authority of the UN, willingly forgetting what atrocities led to the creation of the UN in the first place!
Currently, the most important international relationships my community has is with experts from other countries to help us try to make gains in evidence-based transport, agricultural, energy and climate policies for New Zealand. Currently, much community effort is being spent trying to undo or mitigate aggressive and regressive government actions that have no basis in evidence or accepted practices. It is very sad to see this waste of human toil and effort, which could be being used to build a better New Zealand.
Also important are the relationships with international experts on democracy. New Zealand’s poor democratic practices are stifling our progress. Deliberation and informed decision-making are the basis of good democracy. New Zealand will not thrive and we will not make the most of opportunities while most decisions are being made on the basis of misinformed opinions, corporate lobbying, misguided pursuits of economic growth, and populism.
New Zealand’s foreign policy should promote the international development of a body of knowledge about modern democracy. Such an international resource would be useful for all kinds of decision-making, and could help dispel the damaging myth that “one person one vote” is a sufficient basis for democracy.
New Zealand’s greatest strength in our international engagement is the goodwill built up over many decades by good diplomacy and leadership. While there has been a low bar for what a “good” country should do to improve the welfare of poorer countries and to pursue development goals, at least New Zealand often tried to be one of the more enlightened OECD countries. Internationally, the standard must improve. Unfortunately, New Zealand is not stepping up. The goodwill is evaporating rapidly.
Our biggest weakness in international relationships is the lack of integrity in our domestic policies.
Do you have any other thoughts on the international context you would like the team to consider?
How the climate changes depends on emissions right now and over the next few years. Net zero by 2050 is necessary but by then it will be largely irrelevant; the important point is the emissions trajectory to get there. Bureaucrats and leaders believe they face difficult decisions currently and rarely prioritise emissions reductions. Yet the different climate pathways will determine the options in front of future decision-makers, who will have fewer resources to be able to draw upon, will be functioning in more urgent circumstances, and are likely to be working within weaker institutions.
When this is fully understood, it is clear that decision-making is unlikely to get any easier! We must stick to ethical action that will help decision-makers in the future. We must invest to pursue rapid and significant emissions reductions, and rapidly transform our systems so they are low carbon. We must acknowledge that the true social cost of carbon is orders of magnitude higher than what our ETS scheme uses; much larger than what Europe is using. We must be responsible international neighbours, and ensure poor countries don’t have to make decisions between climate action and social or economic health.
None of this can be delayed while climate deniers have their turn at power plays in politics. Quality foreign policy, in the absence of quality domestic policy, is akin to “polishing a turd”.
The third iteration of Heart Aerospace’s proposed new aircraft, now a 30-seat parallel hybrid.
Back in 2021 electric aircraft were a hot topic. Paul Callister and I looked at three startups (Heart Aerospace’s ES-19, Eviation’s Alice, and the Lilium Jet) to see if their claims stacked up. They all faced serious difficulties with weight, range (especially the reserve range required for safety), and unproven technology.
Two of the three (Lilium and Eviation,the latter pre-ordered by Air New Zealand) went bankrupt in February 2025, leaving only Heart Aerospace. Their ES-19 (pre-ordered by Sounds Air) has undergone two radical redesigns. In May 2024, an innovative wing strut was added and the range was halved to 200 km, extended by a serial kerosene generator (ideally used only as a reserve). Later, the wing strut disappeared, and two of the four electric motors were replaced by standard kerosene turboprops – essentially a parallel hybrid. No test aircraft has yet been flown or even built, but commercial operation is still promised for 2030.
On the policy front progress has been no better. The Climate Change Commission has made a strong recommendation to bring international aviation and shipping into New Zealand’s 2050 climate target; the government has yet to respond, and the Commission has no brief to look at the issue further. The public/private partnership Sustainable Aviation Aotearoa, established in 2022 as part of the first Emissions Reduction Plan, has yet to issue reports, advice, or communications of any kind.
This was the background in my mind as I prepared to address the Royal Aeronautical Society’s New Zealand Division on “Tech hopes for the aviation industry” on 29 May.
Please watch the video of the talk below, or read the slides.
Planetary Ecology 